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Procedure of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Water  -1st CREST Lecture-

Date: March 21 -22, 2012
Venue: Room 312, Kyoto University at Katsura, Japan

Organized by:
- Global COE Program “Global Center for Education and Research on Human Security Engineering for Asian Megacities”
- Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST) under the project named as “New Water Reuse System using Urban Aquifer with Advanced Risk Management”

Number of attendants: 19

Report 202


The lecture entitled “Procedure of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Water -1st CREST Lecture-” was held at room 312 on June 21st to 22nd, 2012. This lecture was held in order to share the procedure of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to quantify microbial risk in drinking water and re-used water with all participants. All participants have learned the procedure and techniques using a software of Crystal Ball.


In the lecture, Prof. Sadahiko Itoh, the project leader of the CREST project, explained the procedure of the QMRA with having a technical support by Ms. Liang Zhou, a research assistant of the CREST project. All participants including researchers from universities and National Institute of Public Health, and staffs of water supply in municipal governments have learned the detailed procedure using a software of Crystal Ball. The content of the lecture were as follows.
1. Calculation of probability of infection.
1) Monte Carlo simulation,
2) Bootstrap sampling.

2. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis.

3. Technical problems in the QMRA.
1) Non-boiled water consumption,
2) Point estimate and the Monte Carlo simulation,
3) Data paring method,
4) Concentration interpolation method for data below detection limit.

4. Perspectives of QMRA and water safety plan. 1) The QMRA tool,
2) Change of microbial water quality index,
3) Usage of the QMRA in the water safety plan.